On Monday, coffee prices hit 1.5-week highs, with March arabica coffee (KCH26) closing up 1.90 cents (+0.54%) and March ICE robusta coffee (RMH26) rising 26 cents (+0.67%). Concerns about Brazil’s coffee crop have intensified due to below-average rainfall, with Minas Gerais receiving only 11.1 mm of rain, 17% of its historical average, as reported by Somar Meteorologia.
The flooding in Indonesia is also impacting coffee markets, threatening a potential 15% reduction in the country’s coffee exports for the 2025-26 season. Approximately one-third of Indonesia’s arabica coffee farms in northern Sumatra have been affected. Meanwhile, ICE coffee inventories continue to fluctuate, with arabica stocks reaching a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags on November 20, but recovering to 456,477 bags recently.
Vietnam’s coffee exports surged by 39% year-over-year in November, contributing to concerns of abundant supplies, with production projected to rise 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags) for 2025/26. This increase in Vietnamese output, combined with broader global trends, led the USDA to project a 2% rise in world coffee production for 2025/26, totaling 178.848 million bags.
