July arabica coffee rose by +0.50 (+0.18%) while July ICE robusta coffee surged by +85 (+2.44%) today. Robust coffee prices were driven by tight inventories, with ICE robusta stocks dropping to a two-year low of 3,642 lots, and ICE arabica inventories falling to 471,831 bags, the lowest in 2.5 months.
Brazil’s April green coffee exports declined by 1.3% year-on-year to 2.76 million bags. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has exacerbated global shipping costs, further tightening coffee supplies. Conversely, Vietnam reported a significant increase in coffee exports, with a rise of 15.8% year-on-year to 810,000 metric tons for January-April 2026.
Expectations of an uptick in Brazil’s coffee production are dimming price forecasts, with a projected 12% year-on-year increase to 71.4 million bags for the 2026/27 harvest. Global coffee production is also expected to rise to a record 178.848 million bags for 2025/26, according to the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service.
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