On Tuesday, September arabica coffee (KCU25) rose by 2.64% to close at +7.35, while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) increased by 1.19%, closing up +42. The price recovery followed forecasts of limited rainfall in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions, triggering short covering in coffee futures.
As of July 4, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative, Cooxupe, reported its coffee harvest was 40% complete, compared to 52% at the same time last year. Additionally, Brazil’s coffee exports in May decreased by 36% year-over-year to 2.8 million bags. The USDA reported Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production is expected to rise by 0.5% year-over-year to 65 million bags.
Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports increased by 4.1% year-over-year to 943,000 metric tons, while drought conditions led to a 20% decrease in the country’s coffee production for the 2023/24 crop year, marking the smallest crop in four years.
