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On September 6, coffee prices surged, with December arabica coffee closing up 2.78% at $10.75 and November ICE robusta coffee up 1.77% at $80, following a lack of rainfall in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions. Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica area, received no rain during the week, pushing arabica prices to a 4-month high and robusta to a 1.5-week high.
ICE-monitored arabica inventories have fallen to a 16-month low of 669,225 bags, while robusta inventories dropped to a 2-week low of 6,557 lots. Concerns over tighter U.S. coffee supplies due to a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports are contributing to rising prices, with U.S. buyers avoiding new contracts as approximately one-third of American unroasted coffee is sourced from Brazil.
Additionally, Brazil’s coffee export figures reveal a significant decrease, with July unroasted coffee exports falling 20.4% year-over-year to 161,000 MT, and green coffee exports dropping 28% to 2.4 million bags. As Brazil’s harvest nears completion, Cooxupe reported that 97% of its members’ harvest was completed by September 5, suggesting a tight market ahead.
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