July arabica coffee (KCN26) rose by $4.85 (+1.81%) and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) increased by $64 (+1.92%) today. The upward movement is attributed to concerns that the El Niño weather pattern could negatively impact Brazil’s coffee production for the 2026/27 crop year, with an 82% likelihood of El Niño conditions emerging by mid-year, as per the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell by 1.3% year-on-year to 2.76 million bags, while Vietnam’s coffee exports for the same period increased by 15.8% year-on-year to 810,000 metric tons. Additionally, ICE robusta inventories fell to a 2-year low of 3,631 lots last Friday, before rebounding to 3,924 lots today. The International Coffee Organization reported a slight decrease in global coffee exports for the current marketing year to 138.658 million bags.
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has further strained global coffee supplies, driving up shipping and operational costs for importers and roasters, which may positively influence coffee prices.
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