On Monday, March arabica coffee (KCH26) closed up +6.70 (+1.97%) and January ICE robusta coffee (RMF26) rose +88 (+2.33%) following reports that Brazil’s largest arabica-growing region, Minas Gerais, received 38.3 mm of rainfall, meeting 76% of the historical average for the week ending December 19.
Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, increased its 2025 coffee production estimate by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags, while Vietnam’s National Statistics Office revealed that November coffee exports surged 39% year-over-year to 88,000 MT. U.S. purchases of Brazilian coffee from August to October fell by 52% due to previously high tariffs, totaling 983,970 bags.
Current global coffee supplies are tightening, with a report by the International Coffee Organization showing a 0.3% year-over-year decline in global coffee exports to 138.658 million bags. Additionally, the USDA forecasts 2025/26 world coffee production to reach a record 178.848 million bags, a 2.0% increase from the prior year, while arabica production is expected to decline by 4.7% to 95.515 million bags.
