September arabica coffee (KCU26) closed up by 3.43% (+10.75) and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) increased by 1.12% (+42) on Monday, amid concerns over Brazil’s coffee harvest due to heavy rainfall. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s primary coffee-growing region, received 32.4 mm of rain in the week ending July 26, significantly above historical averages.
As of July 17, the coffee harvest among Cooxupe co-op members was only 47.3% complete, compared to 59% in the same period last year. The USDA forecasts that global coffee output for the 2026-27 season will rise by 6% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags.
Additionally, robusta inventories on the ICE reached a 4.25-month high while arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low, further influencing prices. Concerns regarding the El Niño weather pattern may impact next year’s coffee crop. On the export front, Vietnam reported a 7.3% year-over-year increase in coffee exports for the first half of 2026, totaling 1.05 million metric tons.
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