Coffee Prices Surge Due to Supply Issues

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**Coffee Price Update**
On Friday, May arabica coffee (KCK26) closed up by 2.94% to $8.85, while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) fell by 0.14% to -$5. The current rally in coffee prices has been driven by the disruption of global shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in increased shipping rates and tighter global supplies. This week, arabica reached a 1.5-month high due to these pressures.

**Market Trends**
As of Monday, arabica coffee experienced a dip to a 2-week low, influenced by abundant rainfall in Brazil, relieving short-term crop concerns. The forecast for Brazilian coffee production in 2026/27 has been revised upward to a record 75.3 million bags, further impacting prices negatively. Conversely, January-February 2026 coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, rose by 14% year-on-year to 366,000 MT, contributing to downward pressure on robusta prices.

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