On Wednesday, September arabica coffee (KCU26) closed up 4.35 cents (+1.30%), while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) fell 13 cents (-0.34%). The rise in arabica prices comes amid concerns over potential disruptions to coffee exports from Colombia, the world’s second-largest arabica producer, following a 7.4 magnitude earthquake on Monday that affected key coffee-growing regions.
The earthquake impacted provinces like Caldas and Risaralda, which contribute roughly 25% of Colombia’s coffee output. Shipping firm Maersk reported temporary suspension of terminal operations in Buenaventura, the main export hub for Colombian coffee. Additionally, ICE arabica coffee inventories have reached a 2.75-year low of 240,285 bags, contrasting with robusta inventories, which peaked at a 5-month high of 4,364 lots.
Vietnam has reported significantly increased coffee exports, reaching 1.31 million metric tons (MMT) for 2026 (up 21.1% year-over-year). This surge in production could negatively impact robusta prices as Vietnam continues to dominate the market. Meanwhile, the USDA forecasts global coffee output for the 2026-27 season will rise by 6.0% to a record 189.7 million bags, largely due to improved growing conditions in Brazil.
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