On September 12, arabica coffee prices rose by 1.04%, closing at a five-week high of +3.45 due to supply concerns following a powerful 7.4 magnitude earthquake that struck Colombia, home to about a quarter of the world’s arabica production. The quake affected key coffee-growing provinces, Caldas and Risaralda, and led to Maersk temporarily suspending terminal operations in Buenaventura, Colombia’s main coffee export hub.
In contrast, robusta coffee prices dipped by 0.63%, reflecting an inventory increase to a 4.75-month high of 4,352 lots. Meanwhile, ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 241,838 bags. The USDA forecasts a 6% rise in global coffee output for the 2026-27 season, reaching a record 189.7 million bags, though projections indicate the potential impact of the El Niño weather pattern on Brazilian coffee production may create further volatility.
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