ConocoPhillips Faces Challenges Amid Market Turbulence and Declining Stock Prices
Houston, Texas-based ConocoPhillips (COP) stands as one of the largest independent exploration and production (E&P) companies globally, measured by production and proved reserves. With a market capitalization of $110.8 billion, the company employs around 11,800 people and operates across 13 countries in the Americas, Indo-Pacific, and EMEA regions.
Recent Performance and Comparison to Market
Over the past year and into 2025, ConocoPhillips has notably underperformed relative to the broader market. COP’s stock has decreased by 29.1% over the last 52 weeks, with an 11.6% decline year-to-date (YTD). In contrast, the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has shown an 8.2% increase over the same period despite a YTD decrease of 4.7%.
Looking closer, COP has also lagged behind the iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (IEO), which has seen a 21.4% decline over the past year and an 8.3% drop YTD.
Q4 Results Highlight Operational Strength but Financial Challenges
Following the release of its Q4 results on February 6, ConocoPhillips witnessed a minor dip in stock value. The company reported a significant boost in production, rising to 2,183 MBOED, up by 281 MBOED from the previous year. However, a decline in oil prices contributed to a 3.7% decrease in overall revenue year-over-year, bringing it to $14.7 billion. Additionally, adjusted net income fell nearly 16% from last year, reaching $2.4 billion.
Despite these declines, there were positive developments. The company’s total revenue exceeded market expectations by 41 basis points, and an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.98 was 4.2% above consensus estimates. This performance partially softened the impact on stock prices.
Outlook for 2025 and Analyst Predictions
Looking forward to the fiscal year 2025, which concludes in December, analysts predict a 15% decrease in adjusted earnings, estimating $6.62 per share. ConocoPhillips has had a mixed history of earnings surprises, beating bottom-line estimates three out of the last four quarters while missing once.
Interestingly, COP has garnered a consensus rating of “Strong Buy.” Out of 26 analysts covering the stock, 19 recommend “Strong Buy,” four suggest “Moderate Buy,” and three advise “Hold.”
Analyst Ratings Trends
This consensus is somewhat less optimistic compared to three months ago, when 23 analysts issued “Strong Buy” ratings. On April 23, Barclays (BCS) analyst Betty Jiang reaffirmed a “Buy” rating for COP, adjusting the price target from $135 to $120.
Currently, COP’s average price target sits at $117.04, indicating a 33.6% potential upside from existing levels. Furthermore, the highest target of $140 points towards a significant upside opportunity of 59.8%.
On the date of publication, Aditya Sarawgi did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
