Corn Futures Show Mixed Movement Amidst Weather Concerns

Corn futures are experiencing fluctuations at midday on Friday, with prices 2 cents lower to 3 cents higher, primarily influenced by the new crop December contract. The market concluded Thursday’s session with nearby contracts down 3 to 4 cents, while December gained 1 penny. Preliminary open interest increased by 6,510 contracts, predominantly in December. Additionally, there were 28 deliveries for May corn futures overnight, all accounted for by an RJO customer. The CmdtyView national average cash corn price declined by ¾ cent, now standing at $4.41.

Weather Forecast and Its Impact

Next week’s weather predictions indicate sporadic rainfall, with certain areas in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana expected to receive around 1 inch. Ohio might experience heavier rain totals, while southern regions are anticipated to see more precipitation. In contrast, the western Corn Belt is forecasted to remain drier, particularly affecting Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and the Dakotas, where little to no precipitation is expected.

USDA Export Sales and Ethanol Production Data

USDA’s export sales report on Thursday revealed 1.014 million metric tons (MMT) of 2024/25 corn sold during the week ending April 24. This figure brings total export commitments to 58.749 MMT, which is 91% of the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) full-year forecast. This falls short of the 5-year average sales pace of 94% but is ahead of last year’s 86% tracking.

Furthermore, the monthly Grain Crushing report from NASS indicated that March saw 454.197 million bushels of corn used for ethanol production. This reflects a 7.7% increase from February but a 3.79% decrease year-on-year. For the marketing year, ethanol usage has reached 3.209 billion bushels, which is up approximately 18 million bushels compared to the same period last year, marking the highest volume through March since the 2017/18 marketing year.

International Crop Estimates

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has reported that 31% of Argentina’s corn crop has been harvested, showing a gradual 1% progression from the previous week. Meanwhile, brokerage StoneX anticipates total Brazilian corn production for 2024/25 to reach 132.4 MMT.

Current Market Prices

May 25 Corn is priced at $4.64 1/4, unchanged.

Nearby Cash stands at $4.41 1/1, down ¾ cent.

Jul 25 Corn is at $4.71 1/4, down 1 cent.

Dec 25 Corn has increased to $4.50 3/4, up 3 ½ cents.

New Crop Cash is at $4.09 1/4, an increase of 2 ¾ cents.

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any securities mentioned in this article. All information and data are provided for informational purposes. For more details, please refer to the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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