Corn Futures Slide as U.S. Crop Progress Matches Average

Corn futures ended Monday lower, with contracts declining by 2 to 5 ¾ cents. The front month CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price fell 6 ½ cents to $4.13 ¼.

Crop Progress and Condition Ratings

According to weekly Crop Progress data, 93% of the U.S. corn crop is now planted, aligning with the 5-year average. Emergence stands at 78%, which is 1% ahead of normal. The second week of condition ratings noted a 1% increase in good/excellent ratings, now at 69%, while the Brugler500 index rose by 1 point to 375.

Weather Forecast Impacts Market Sentiment

A wet forecast is adding pressure on corn prices. The 7-day QPF from NOAA predicts extensive rains across the Plains and Eastern Corn Belt, with totals ranging from 1 to 4 inches.

Ethanol Production Data

Monthly Grain Crushing data indicated that 425.8 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol in April. This reflects a 6% decrease from last month but is 0.77% higher than April 2022, marking a 6-year high for this month. For the marketing year, total corn consumption for ethanol is 3.634 billion bushels, an increase of 20 million bushels compared to the same time last year.

Export Inspections Report

The USDA’s Export Inspections report revealed that 1.576 million metric tons (60.05 million bushels) of corn were shipped in the week ending May 29. This is an increase of 11.26% from the previous week and 11.03% compared to the same week in 2022. Major destinations included Mexico (415,593 MT), Japan (388,008 MT), and South Korea (263,768 MT). Cumulative shipments for the marketing year have reached 48.58 million metric tons (1.913 billion bushels), up 28.54% from last year.

Brazilian Corn Production Estimates Upgraded

AgRural raised its corn forecast for Brazil by 3.7 million metric tons to 128.5 million metric tons. Additionally, the second crop corn is reported to be 1.3% planted in the center-south region. StoneX also increased its estimate by 1.6 million metric tons to 134 million metric tons, primarily due to improvements in the second crop projections.

Current Pricing

As of July 25, July corn settled at $4.38 ¼, down 5 ¾ cents. Nearby cash corn was priced at $4.13 ¼, down 6 ½ cents. September corn closed at $4.20 ¾, down 2 ½ cents, and December corn ended at $4.35 ¾, down 2 ¾ cents. New crop cash corn was at $3.93 ¾, down 2 ¼ cents.

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. All information is provided for informational purposes. For more details, view the Barchart Disclosure Policy
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