Corn Futures Decline Amid Tariff Concerns and Ethanol Production Updates

Corn futures are experiencing a downturn in midday trading on Wednesday, with contracts losing between 1 and 4 ¼ cents. However, futures have rebounded slightly from their earlier lows. Currently, the CmdtyView national average cash corn price is down 4 ¼ cents today, standing at $4.27.

Market Reactions to Tariff Announcements

President Trump is anticipated to announce tariffs later today, which he has dubbed “Liberation Day.” In response, Mexico’s President Sheinbaum stated this morning that she will not impose reciprocal tariffs against the U.S. The market is also watching for potential retaliatory responses from Japan or South Korea regarding any reciprocal tariffs that may arise.

Recent Ethanol Production Data

Weekly EIA data revealed an increase of 10,000 barrels per day in ethanol production for the week ending March 28, bringing the output total to 1.063 million barrels per day. However, stocks decreased by 738,000 barrels, now totaling 26.612 million. Refiner inputs of ethanol rose by 20,000 barrels per day to 898,000 barrels per day, while exports fell to their lowest level since last July, recorded at 62,000 barrels per day.

Export Expectations and Grain Crushing Data

Export sales data set to be released Thursday morning is expected to show corn bookings for 2024/25 ranging from 0.8 to 1.6 million metric tons (MMT). The new crop is estimated to come in at a middle range of 0-100,000 metric tons.

Additional data from NASS indicated that 421.2 million bushels (mbu) of corn were used for ethanol production in February. This marks a 10% decrease from January’s revised total, which was 10.5 mbu higher. Year-over-year, February’s use was down 5.44%. The year-to-date total for corn used in ethanol production is now at 2.754 billion bushels, which is 1.31% higher than at the same time last year.

Current Price Overview

• May 25 Corn: $4.57 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents
• Nearby Cash: $4.27, down 4 cents
• Jul 25 Corn: $4.65, down 3 1/4 cents
• Dec 25 Corn: $4.48 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents
• New Crop Cash: $4.11 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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