Cotton Futures Face Declines Amid External Pressure

Market Activity and Commitment of Traders Data

Cotton futures experienced losses ranging from 84 to 103 points on Friday, largely influenced by outside market conditions. Specifically, the March contract decreased by 182 points over the week. Today marks the expiration of December cotton futures. The US dollar index rose by 249 points, while crude oil prices fell by $1.13 per barrel, contributing to the pressure on cotton markets.

Export Sales and Cotton Shipments Analysis

Recent Weekly Commitment of Traders data revealed that managed money reduced their net short position in cotton futures and options by 3,618 contracts as of December 3. This left their net position at 16,383 contracts by last Tuesday.

Export sales data for the 2024/25 marketing year show upland cotton shipments at 2.145 million running bales (RB), marking a 13% decline from last year. This figure represents only 20% of the USDA’s full-year export forecast, which typically averages around 24%. Total commitments, including both shipped and unshipped sales, sit at 6.859 million RB, also a 13% drop from the previous year. This amount accounts for 65% of the USDA’s projected total, which lags behind the usual 71% pace seen in export sales.

Current Market Figures

According to The Seam, there were 7,693 bales sold online on December 5 at an average price of 68.01 cents per pound. ICE cotton stocks rose by 1,189 bales on Thursday, totaling 14,463 bales of certified stocks. Meanwhile, the Cotlook A Index held steady on December 5 at 81.60 cents per pound, and the USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) increased by 21 points this week to reach 57.74 cents per pound.

Additional closing figures are as follows:

• Mar 25 Cotton: 70.11 cents/lb, down 99 points
• May 25 Cotton: 71.35 cents/lb, down 103 points
• Jul 25 Cotton: 72.41 cents/lb, down 93 points

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are for informational purposes only. For more details, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.