Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) has seen its stock plummet approximately 80% from its initial public offering price in November 2021, as production slowdowns were projected for 2024 and 2025. The company, which produces electric vehicles (EVs) including the R1T pickup and R1S SUV, intends to ramp up production of its more affordable R2 SUV, which launched in March 2023. Despite increasing its production from 24,337 vehicles in 2022 to an expected 57,232 in 2023, supply chain issues and reduced EV subsidies are contributing to future production declines, with forecasts of 49,476 and 42,284 vehicles in 2024 and 2025, respectively.
Rivian anticipates annual vehicle deliveries will rise to between 62,000 and 67,000 by 2026, but even these figures would lag behind Tesla, which delivered 1.64 million vehicles in 2025. Analysts predict Rivian’s revenue will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43% from 2025 to 2028, with positive EBITDA anticipated by 2028. However, as the electric vehicle market becomes increasingly saturated, Rivian faces challenges in achieving the same growth trajectory that Tesla experienced, given the reduction of supportive government subsidies.
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