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On October 3, 2023, sugar prices increased, with New York world sugar #11 (SBV25) up +0.21 (1.34%) and London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) up +3.10 (0.65%). This rise is attributed to a +1% rally in WTI crude oil, leading to some short covering in sugar futures. Stronger crude prices may encourage global sugar mills to prioritize ethanol production, potentially reducing sugar supplies.
Recent investigations show that Brazil’s sugar production rose by 16% year-on-year in early August, totaling 3,615 million tons. However, cumulative sugar output for 2025/26 is estimated to decline by 4.7% year-on-year to 22.886 million tons. Meanwhile, forecasts indicate a potential global sugar deficit of 231,000 tons for the 2025/26 season, down from a shortfall of 4.88 million tons in 2024/25.
An anticipated increase in sugar exports from India could further pressure sugar prices, as India’s sugar production for 2025/26 is expected to rise by 19% to 35 million tons due to favorable weather conditions. Additionally, Thailand’s sugar production may increase by 14% for the 2024/25 season, potentially impacting global supply dynamics.
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