As of today, October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) is down 0.15 (-1.00%), while August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ26) is down 0.10 (-0.02%). This decline follows a recent surge, with London sugar reaching a 9.75-month high and NY sugar hitting a 7-week high. The decrease is attributed to falling crude oil prices, with WTI crude (CLQ26) dropping to a 4.25-month low, potentially increasing sugar production as millers shift from ethanol production.
Key factors influencing sugar prices include concerns over weak monsoon rains in India, which are currently 38% below normal and may yield the weakest monsoon in 11 years, projected to impact the second-largest sugarcane harvest globally. Additionally, Brazil’s sugar production for 2026/27 is projected to decline by 2.0% year-over-year, with 6.838 million metric tons reported, driven by increased ethanol production as millers utilize more cane for ethanol than sugar.
The emergence of a “Super El Niño,” with a 67% probability predicted by NOAA, raises further concerns about potential disruptions in rainfall across major sugar-producing countries such as Brazil, India, and Thailand. This climate pattern threatens to reduce global sugar production, with forecasts suggesting a potential deficit of 262,000 metric tons for the 2026/27 season.
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