On Friday, May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) closed down 0.01 (-0.07%), while May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) rose 0.70 (+0.17%). The market was impacted by a rally in the dollar index ($DXY) to a 3.5-month high and speculation that rising crude oil prices (CLJ26), hitting a 3.75-year high, could lead Brazil to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production.
Analysts project a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) in the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26. The International Sugar Organization forecasts a surplus of 1.22 MMT for 2025/26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. Meanwhile, Brazil’s sugar production in January fell by 36% year-over-year, but cumulative output for 2025/26 remains up 0.9% at 40.24 MMT.
India’s sugar output from October to February reached 24.75 MMT, a 12% year-over-year increase, and the country has received approval for an additional 500,000 MT of sugar exports for the 2025/26 season. The USDA expects global sugar production to rise 4.6% year-over-year to a record 189.318 MMT for 2025/26.
