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On Monday, December WTI crude oil (CLZ25) closed at $59.20, down $0.18 (-0.30%), while December RBOB gasoline (RBZ25) closed at $1.9815, down $0.0215 (-1.07%). The decline in crude oil prices is attributed to a risk-averse investor sentiment and concerns about anticipated weak US economic reports, coinciding with the partial resumption of operations at Russia’s Novorossiysk oil export port following Ukrainian attacks.
Ukraine has targeted at least 28 Russian refineries in recent months, limiting Russia’s crude export capabilities and reducing total seaborne fuel shipments to 3.45 million bpd as of November 9—a decrease of 130,000 bpd from the prior week. Additionally, US crude oil production reached a record high of 13.862 million bpd for the week ending November 7, as active US oil rigs increased by 3 to 417.
OPEC revised its Q3 global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus of 500,000 bpd, citing increased US production and its own output climb to 29.07 million bpd in October. The IEA forecasts a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd for 2026, indicating that OPEC+ will pause production increases in early 2026 amid a global oil surplus.
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