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As of December 5, January WTI crude oil prices have fallen by $0.48 (0.82%) to a two-week low, while January RBOB gasoline has decreased by $0.0239 (1.34%), reaching its lowest point in 4.75 years. The decline comes amid a mixed EIA inventory report revealing a larger-than-expected drop in crude supplies by 1.81 million barrels, contrasted with a rise in gasoline and distillate stockpiles by 6.4 million barrels and 2.5 million barrels, respectively.
Concerns regarding a global oil glut have intensified, as Trafigura forecasts the market heading towards a “super glut” next year. Additionally, data from Vortexa indicates Russian oil product shipments hit a three-year low of 1.7 million barrels per day in the first half of November. Furthermore, OPEC+ is pausing production increases in Q1 2026 after anticipating a record global surplus of 4 million barrels per day for that year.
In terms of US production, inventories are 4.3% below the five-year average, with crude production rising slightly to 13.853 million barrels per day. The number of active US oil rigs has increased by 6 to 413, rebounding from a four-year low.
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