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October WTI crude oil prices fell by $0.54 (-0.84%) to a two-week low, while October RBOB gasoline prices decreased by $0.0020 (-0.10%) as of today. Concerns about a potential global oil supply glut arose following a Reuters report indicating that OPEC+ is contemplating increasing crude production levels. This follows an unexpected rise in weekly EIA crude inventories by 2.4 million barrels, contrasting with expectations of a 1.9 million barrel draw.
Global economic data revealed weaker-than-expected metrics, with the U.S. August ADP employment change increasing by 54,000, below the forecast of 68,000, and initial unemployment claims rising by 8,000 to a ten-week high of 237,000. Concurrently, Eurozone retail sales fell by 0.5% month-over-month, further affecting energy demand. However, U.S. gasoline inventories dropped by 3.8 million barrels, marking a nine-month low, which provided some support for gasoline prices.
OPEC’s August crude production rose by 400,000 barrels per day to 28.55 million barrels per day, the highest level in over two years. The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on September 7 may address production levels due to the long-term aim of gradually restoring 2.2 million barrels per day by September 2026. Meanwhile, the U.S. crude oil output decreased slightly to 13.423 million barrels per day for the week ending August 29.
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