On Friday, June WTI crude oil closed down $1.45 (-1.51%) and June RBOB gasoline fell $0.0065 (-0.19%), marking a significant decline after the announcement of a potential second round of US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan. President Trump is expected to send two envoys to Pakistan for discussions, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is anticipated to arrive in Pakistan; however, Iran has stated that no talks between US and Iranian officials are scheduled.
The ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has severely impacted oil production, with Goldman Sachs estimating a decrease of approximately 14.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude output in the Persian Gulf as of April, affecting nearly 500 million barrels from global crude stockpiles. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reported that the Iran war and the Strait’s closure have shut down about 13 million bpd of global oil supply, while OPEC+ plans to increase crude output by 206,000 bpd in May seem unlikely due to the ongoing conflict.
