**March WTI crude oil closed down $0.434 (-0.72%) and March RBOB gasoline decreased by $0.0312 (-1.67%) on Monday, March 27, 2023.** The decline followed a Friday rally and was attributed to long liquidation pressure and the easing of disruptions to Kazakhstan’s oil exports, particularly after the resumption of a Black Sea terminal, which had been hindered by power generator fires affecting the Tengiz and Korolev oil fields. Up to 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude production in Kazakhstan has been curtailed.
**The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently adjusted its 2026 global crude surplus prediction to 3.7 million bpd, down from 3.815 million bpd.** Simultaneously, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its 2026 U.S. crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd. In related industry updates, the number of active U.S. oil rigs in the week ending January 23 increased by one to 411, marking a notable decrease from the high of 627 rigs in December 2022.
**Global supply dynamics are also influenced by geopolitical tensions, with Ukraine targeting Russian refineries and tankers.** This has led to intensified sanctions affecting Russian oil exports, adding further pressure to the market as disruptions continue to be a concern.
