On Friday, September WTI crude oil (CLU25) fell by $1.93 (2.79%) to close at $66.50, while September RBOB gasoline (RBU25) dropped $0.0553 (2.54%). This decline was chiefly due to concerns over global energy demand exacerbated by President Trump’s recent tariff announcements and disappointing U.S. economic data. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls for July increased by 73,000, below expectations of 104,000, and the ISM manufacturing index fell to 48.0, indicating contraction.
President Trump unveiled a 10% global minimum and 15% tariffs on countries with trade surpluses with the U.S., effective August 7. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase warned that these tariffs could significantly impact global economic growth and energy demand. Additionally, the International Energy Agency noted a potential crude oil surplus by Q4-2025, while OPEC+ is expected to discuss maintaining production increases amidst these concerns in their meeting on Sunday.
Baker Hughes reported a drop in active U.S. oil rigs to a 3.75-year low of 410 rigs, down from a peak of 627 rigs in December 2022. This contraction accompanies a reported 23% week-over-week increase in crude oil stored on tankers, suggesting bearish trends for oil prices amid an ongoing search for balance in global supply dynamics.
