On January 2, 2026, February WTI crude oil closed down 2.04% at $57.50 per barrel, while February RBOB gasoline fell by 1.13%. The decline was attributed to a strengthening dollar and concerns over energy demand, especially following Saudi Arabia’s third consecutive price cut for Arab Light crude. Morgan Stanley has revised its crude price forecast for Q1 to $57.50/bbl and Q2 to $55/bbl, anticipating a global oil surplus reached 4.0 million bpd, peaking mid-year.
In related data, Vortexa reported a 3.4% weekly drop in crude stored on stationary tankers to 119.35 million barrels. Additionally, China’s crude imports are projected to increase by 10% month-over-month in December to a record 12.2 million bpd. US production remains steady at 13.827 million bpd, while the EIA reports are anticipating a weekly decline in US crude inventories by 1 million barrels and an increase in gasoline supplies by 2 million barrels. The number of active US oil rigs has risen by three to 412, slightly rebounding from a four-and-a-half-year low.
