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On November 7, 2023, December WTI crude oil closed at $61.19, up +0.91 (+1.51%), while December RBOB gasoline closed at $2.0163, up +0.0409 (+2.07%). This rally marks a one-week high for crude and a six-week high for gasoline, driven by a decline in the dollar index and expectations for a temporary government funding resolution.
The U.S. Senate approved a continuing resolution with a 60-40 vote, and the House is expected to pass it, supporting economic growth and energy demand. Meanwhile, China’s crude imports rose by 3.1% year-on-year to 471 MMT in the first ten months of 2023, providing further support to prices. However, bearish factors include a reduction in Saudi crude prices for Asia and military tensions that could impact global supplies.
OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 bpd in December, with a pause expected in Q1-2026. Additionally, Russian crude exports have been affected by Ukrainian attacks, limiting their capability and resulting in a significant drop in seaborne fuel shipments to 1.88 million bpd, the lowest in over 3.25 years.
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