On Friday, August WTI crude oil (CLQ25) closed up by $0.28 (+0.43%) while August RBOB gasoline (RBQ25) dropped by $1.04 (-0.50%). Crude prices were bolstered by improved trade relations between the US and China, alongside ongoing sanctions against Iran, which contributed to market uncertainty. The gains were tempered by a stronger dollar and a decrease in the crude crack spread to a 1-1/2 week low.
US Energy Secretary Wright indicated that sanctions on Iran will remain, while President Trump reiterated intentions to keep tariffs in place ahead of the July 9 deadline. Additionally, Russia expressed openness to an OPEC+ production hike, with OPEC+ planning to restore 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of production by September 2026. OPEC’s production recently rose by 200,000 bpd to 27.54 million bpd, reflecting adjustments in output strategies.
Gasoline demand may see a spike, projected by the American Automobile Association (AAA) to reach a record 61.6 million travelers over the Fourth of July holiday, up 2.2% from the previous year. Furthermore, US crude oil inventories were reported to be 10.9% below the seasonal five-year average as of June 20, with active US oil rigs falling to a three-and-a-half-year low of 432 rigs.
