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On October 17, November WTI crude oil closed up by $0.08 (+0.14%) and RBOB gasoline by $0.0260 (+1.44%). This recovery followed early losses, driven by easing US-China trade tensions as President Trump announced a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of the month.
Gasoline prices increased amidst supply concerns due to a fire at BP’s Whiting, Indiana refinery, which has a capacity of 435,000 barrels per day (bpd). Crude prices initially fell to a 5.25-month low, but a $0.08 rise in the dollar index and a projected IEA global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd by 2026 offered some support.
Notably, Ukrainian drone attacks have reduced Russian seaborne fuel shipments to an average of 1.88 million bpd in October, the lowest in over 3.25 years. Iraq is expected to add 500,000 bpd to global supplies by resuming oil exports from the Kurdish region, which had been halted for two years.
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