On Monday, August WTI crude oil closed down $0.41 (-0.63%) while August RBOB gasoline rose by $0.27 (+0.13%). Crude oil prices fell due to expectations of an OPEC+ production increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) at their upcoming meeting on Sunday and comments from President Trump regarding potential sanctions relief for Iran.
OPEC+ production is set to rise, aiming to restore a total of 2.2 million bpd, with a previous agreement for a 411,000 bpd increase in July. As of May, OPEC’s crude production reached 27.54 million bpd, up 200,000 bpd from the previous month. Additionally, gasoline demand is expected to surge, with the American Automobile Association projecting record travel of 61.6 million car trips during the Fourth of July holiday, a 2.2% increase from last year.
In U.S. economic news, the June MNI Chicago PMI unexpectedly fell to 40.4, below the anticipated 43.0, and the Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook indicated continued weakness. As of June 20, U.S. crude inventories were 10.9% below the seasonal average, while active U.S. oil rigs decreased by 6, reaching a 3-3/4 year low of 432 rigs.
