June WTI crude oil prices reached $105.11 per barrel, marking a 1.38% increase, while RBOB gasoline rose 1.19% today. This surge comes amid escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning the US-Iran conflict, which has kept the Strait of Hormuz largely closed. Goldman Sachs estimates that crude output in the Persian Gulf has been reduced by approximately 14.5 million barrels per day (bpd), contributing to a reduction in global crude stockpiles by about 500 million barrels.
On the production side, OPEC has signaled plans to increase oil quotas, intending to complete the return of halted output by September, despite the ongoing Middle East conflict limiting production capabilities. Current OPEC crude production stands at a 35-year low of 20.55 million bpd, down 420,000 bpd from previous levels. Additionally, US crude oil inventories have trended downward, being 0.3% below the seasonal 5-year average, while active US oil rigs rose by five to reach a total of 415 rigs.
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