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On September 19, WTI crude oil closed at $1.58 (+2.49%) and RBOB gasoline at $0.0224 (+1.15%), with crude prices hitting a three-week high. Key factors driving this increase include a significant drop in EIA crude inventories, which unexpectedly fell by 607,000 barrels, reaching an 8-month low.
Concerns regarding Russian crude supplies, exacerbated by President Trump’s rhetoric and NATO’s response to Russian airspace incursions, have contributed to the price surge. Ukraine’s enhanced attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have further tightened global oil supplies, resulting in a reduction to 1.94 million barrels per day in Russian refined product flows for the first half of September, the lowest in over three years.
However, Iraq’s agreement to resume oil exports could introduce at least 230,000 barrels per day back into the market, potentially exerting downward pressure on prices. Also, India’s crude imports fell by 2.9% year-on-year in August, while US crude production rose by 0.1% to 13.501 million barrels per day.
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