September WTI crude oil closed up $1.31 (+2.09%) on Thursday, while September RBOB gasoline rose by $0.0388 (+1.87%). This increase came ahead of a planned summit between President Trump and President Putin on Friday, where Trump indicated potential high tariffs on countries buying Russian oil if no ceasefire is agreed upon, which could tighten the global oil market.
Crude oil prices had hit a two-month low earlier in the week, influenced by bearish forecasts from the EIA and IEA regarding oil surpluses, which projected a global surplus of 2.96 million bpd by 2026. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.04 million barrels to a two-month high as of August 8, approximately 5.1% below the five-year seasonal average, while active U.S. oil rigs slightly increased to 411, remaining near a 3.75-year low.
OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 bpd starting September 1, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million bpd by September 2026. However, the decline in crude oil held on tankers may support prices, with a 5% reduction reported this week. U.S. oil production is expected to fall to 13.28 million bpd by 2026, marking the first annual drop since 2021.
