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On September 25, WTI crude oil closed up $1.55 (+2.38%) to a one-week high, while RBOB gasoline rose $0.0388 (+1.88%). This surge is attributed to President Trump’s announcement of a new 10-12 day deadline for Russia to agree on a truce with Ukraine, potentially increasing sanctions on Russian energy exports. JPMorgan Chase warned that enforcing triple-digit tariffs on Russian oil could lead to a significant supply shock due to limited OPEC spare capacity.
The European Union recently approved sanctions targeting 20 more Russian banks and refined petroleum. Furthermore, OPEC+ is considering pausing production increases after a September hike of 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) amid concerns about a potential global oil surplus by Q4-2025. Iraq’s Kurdish region also plans to resume oil exports, potentially adding 230,000 bpd to the market. As of July 18, US crude oil production fell to 13.273 million bpd, while active US oil rigs decreased to a three-year low of 415 rigs.
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