As of today, September WTI crude oil is up by $1.34 (+2.06%) to reach a one-week high, while September RBOB gasoline has increased by $0.0328 (+1.59%). The rise in prices follows President Trump’s announcement of a new 10-12 day deadline for Russia to agree to a truce with Ukraine, raising concerns about tighter global oil supplies. Additionally, the S&P 500’s record rally has bolstered confidence in future energy demand.
Recent sanctions from the European Union on Russian oil, including cutting 20 banks from the SWIFT payment system and the sanctioning of over 400 ships, have further impacted oil prices. The International Energy Agency predicts a global crude oil surplus of 1.5% of consumption by Q4 2025, as OPEC+ plans to continue increasing production by an additional 548,000 barrels per day starting August 1.
Moreover, Iraq has approved the resumption of crude exports from its semi-autonomous Kurdish region, which is expected to bring 230,000 bpd back online. An increase in crude stored on stationary tankers rose by 23% week-over-week, indicating bearish pressure on oil prices. Active US oil rigs have also decreased to 415, the lowest level in over three years.
