March WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.24% to $64.31 per barrel, while March RBOB gasoline increased by 1.84% to $1.9963 per gallon. This surge is attributed to a weakened U.S. dollar and increased geopolitical risks, particularly after the U.S. advised ships to avoid the Strait of Hormuz due to tensions with Iran, which produces 3.3 million bpd of crude. A failure in U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations could further elevate risks in the region.
In addition, Venezuelan crude exports climbed to 800,000 bpd in January, up from 498,000 bpd in December, potentially counterbalancing some of the upward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, OPEC+ plans to maintain production restrictions, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently lowered its global crude surplus estimate for 2026 to 3.7 million bpd. U.S. crude oil inventories were reported at 4.2% below the seasonal five-year average as of January 30, with production at a 14-month low of 13.215 million bpd.
