As of today, September WTI crude oil is down $0.93 (1.40%) to a one-week low, while September RBOB gasoline has decreased by $0.0088 (0.42%). The decline in crude prices is attributed to concerns over weakening energy demand, following an unexpected drop in the US July ISM services index to 50.1, below the anticipated 51.5.
Additionally, OPEC+ recently announced a production increase of 547,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting September 1, aimed at reversing a two-year production cut. This decision is expected to boost total output to 2.2 million bpd by September 2026. Current OPEC+ crude production stands at 28.31 million bpd, which is a decrease of 20,000 bpd from the previous month. The International Energy Agency warns of a growing global oil surplus by Q4-2025.
In related developments, US crude oil inventories as of July 25 are reported to be 5.6% below the seasonal five-year average, while gasoline inventories are down 0.7%. The number of active US oil rigs has also dropped to 410, the lowest level in 3.75 years, falling sharply from a high of 627 rigs in December 2022.
