On August 1, September WTI crude oil closed down $0.81 (-1.24%) at $64.50, while September RBOB gasoline fell $0.0011 (-0.05%). The downturn followed comments from President Trump indicating progress in discussions between U.S. envoy Witkoff and Russian President Putin regarding the Ukraine conflict, leading to speculation that the U.S. may not introduce additional sanctions on Russian energy exports.
Crude oil prices were initially boosted by a drop in the dollar index and a price hike by Saudi Aramco for Arab Light crude, but concerns over a potential global oil supply surplus intensified after OPEC+ agreed to increase output by 547,000 barrels per day starting September 1. The International Energy Agency projected a surplus by Q4 2025, equivalent to 1.5% of global crude consumption, as July production from OPEC fell by 20,000 bpd to 28.31 million bpd.
In the U.S., crude oil inventories decreased by 3.03 million barrels, surpassing expectations, while gasoline inventories fell by 1.3 million barrels. The number of active U.S. oil rigs also dropped to a 3.75-year low of 410 rigs, a significant decrease from the 627 rigs reported in December 2022.
