On September 5, 2023, WTI crude oil prices closed down by $1.13 (-1.70%) at a one-week low, while RBOB gasoline prices decreased by $0.0107 (-0.51%). These declines were attributed to concerns over weakening energy demand following a decline in the US July ISM services index, which fell by 0.7 points to 50.1, below expectations of 51.5. OPEC+ also announced a production increase of 547,000 barrels per day for September, raising fears of a potential global supply glut.
Additionally, a report suggested that Russia is considering an air truce with Ukraine, potentially influencing global oil markets amid concerns over sanctions on Russian energy exports. OPEC+’s total production is set to gradually increase by 2.2 million bpd by September 2026. Current estimates indicate a potential global oil surplus of 1.5% of consumption by Q4 2025, with US crude production rising to 13.314 million bpd as of July 25.
The upcoming EIA report is anticipated to show a decline in US crude inventories by 2.6 million barrels, while gasoline supplies are projected to decrease by 1.0 million barrels. The number of active US oil rigs has fallen to a 3.75-year low of 410 rigs, a stark decline from the peak of 627 rigs reported in December 2022.
