CSX Corporation Faces Significant Market Challenges Despite Cash Growth
Jacksonville, Florida-based CSX Corporation (CSX) stands as one of North America’s leading transportation companies, specializing in rail-based freight services throughout the U.S. and Canada. With a market capitalization of $53.9 billion, CSX operates through a combination of rail and trucking segments.
CSX’s Stock Performance Compared to Market Trends
Over the past year, the transportation giant has markedly underperformed the broader market. CSX’s stock has declined by 15.9% in the last 52 weeks and recorded an 11.8% drop year-to-date (YTD). This is in contrast to the S&P 500 Index ($SPX), which has seen a 10.2% increase year-over-year and a 3.9% decrease in 2025.
Industry Comparisons and Quarterly Results
When focusing on CSX’s sector performance, it also trails the iShares Transportation Average ETF’s (IYT) 4.2% decline over the previous year and a YTD drop of 6.7%.
Following the release of its mixed Q1 results on April 16, CSX saw a 1.2% rise in stock prices. Total volume dropped nearly 1% year-over-year to 1.52 million units. Revenue fell by 7% to $3.4 billion, missing analysts’ expectations. Earnings also saw a decline, decreasing by 24.4% year-over-year to $0.34 per share, which was below consensus estimates by 8.1%.
Positive Developments and Earnings Outlook
On a positive note, CSX reported a healthy 17.7% year-over-year growth in operating cash flows, totaling $1.3 billion. Additionally, the company repurchased $751 million worth of shares during the quarter, emphasizing its dedication to shareholder value.
For fiscal 2025, ending December 2025, CSX anticipates an 8.7% decline in earnings per share (EPS), projecting it will reach $1.67. The company’s earnings surprise history is varied; it has exceeded Wall Street’s earnings estimates once in the last four quarters but has missed projections three times.
Analyst Ratings and Price Targets
CSX currently holds a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy.” Among 26 analysts covering the stock, there are 17 “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” and eight “Holds.” This is a slight decrease in bullish sentiment compared to three months ago, when 18 analysts issued “Strong Buy” recommendations.
On April 17, UBS (UBS) analyst Thomas Wadewitz maintained a “Buy” rating on CSX while revising the price target down from $36 to $34.
The mean price target for CSX stands at $32.40, suggesting a 13.8% premium to current price levels. Additionally, the highest target of $38 implies an upside potential of 33.5%.
On the date of publication, Aditya Sarawgi did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are solely for informational purposes. For more information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
