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On October 3, 2023, sugar prices surged with October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) rising by 1.81% to $16.27, and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) increasing by 2.03% to $471.40. This rise is attributed to concerns about declining sugar supplies from Brazil, with Covrig Analytics reporting that Brazil’s sugarcane production for 2025/26 could fall below 600 million metric tons (MMT), significantly lower than the government forecast of 663.4 MMT.
Additionally, Brazil’s sugar output through mid-July decreased by 9.2% year-on-year to 15.655 MMT amidst adverse weather conditions. In contrast, India’s sugar production is expected to increase by 25% year-on-year to 35.3 MMT due to favorable monsoon rains, potentially creating a bearish outlook for global sugar prices.
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