On July 10, 2023, cocoa prices fell sharply, with July ICE NY cocoa down 4.28% and July ICE London cocoa down 4.49%, reaching one-week lows. This decline follows an updated cocoa output estimate from the Ivory Coast, which now expects production of 2.2 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season, an increase from a previous estimate of 1.8-1.9 MMT, citing favorable weather conditions.
Additionally, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a 61% probability of El Niño conditions emerging by mid-2023, which may impact cocoa production. Meanwhile, North American cocoa grindings decreased by 3.8% year-over-year to 106,087 MT for Q1, and European grindings fell 7.8% to 325,895 MT, the lowest Q1 figure in 17 years.
Contrastingly, cocoa supplies from the Ivory Coast were stable, with 1.57 MMT shipped to ports this marketing year, up 0.6% from last year. However, Nigerian cocoa exports fell 35% year-over-year in March, and projections indicate a decline in Nigerian production by 11% for the upcoming season.
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