On September 26, coffee prices fell sharply, with December arabica coffee closing down 1.48% at -4.10 and November ICE robusta coffee down 2.31% at -77, reaching three-month lows. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) projected a record global coffee crop of 183.6 million bags for 2025/26, a 4.4% increase year-over-year, leading to a surplus of 3 million bags for the first time in five years.
Brazil’s coffee exports in August rose 31% year-over-year to 4.155 million bags, driven by beneficial growing conditions and a robust harvest. In Vietnam, coffee exports for January-August increased by 13.7% year-over-year to 1.33 million metric tons. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories reached a 9.75-month high of 5,088 lots, contrasting with a recent dip in arabica inventories.
Concerns regarding the potential impact of the El Niño weather pattern on Brazil’s coffee crop have introduced uncertainty, as the U.S. Climate Prediction Center highlights it may be one of the strongest in over 75 years, affecting production in both Asia and South America.
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