On September 27, 2023, arabica coffee prices (KCU25) dropped by 2.31%, settling at a 5.5-month low, while robusta coffee prices (RMN25) fell by 5.15% to a 13.25-month low. This decline comes as frost risks diminish in Brazil’s key coffee regions of São Paulo and Minas Gerais, contributing to an overall bearish market.
Brazil’s coffee harvest is 35% complete, almost matching the 5-year average but slightly trailing last year’s 37%. As of June 11, 2023, the robusta harvest is 49% complete, while only 26% of the arabica harvest has been gathered due to adverse weather conditions. Furthermore, Brazil’s May green coffee exports plummeted by 36% year-over-year to 2.8 million bags, amplifying pressure on coffee prices.
In response to these changes, the USDA has projected Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production to rise by 0.5% year-over-year to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is anticipated to increase by 6.9% to 31 million bags. This report emphasizes the competitive landscape as Brazil continues to lead in arabica production and Vietnam remains the top robusta producer.
