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As of today, July NY world sugar #11 (SBN25) has decreased by $0.48 (-3.04%) to reach a 4-1/4 year futures low, while August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) is down $14.00 (-2.89%). This decline has been attributed to demand concerns and a potential oversupply ahead of the contract’s expiration.
The USDA projects a 4.7% increase in global sugar production for 2025/26, reaching a record 189.318 million metric tons (MMT). The forecast includes a global sugar surplus of 41.188 MMT, driven by higher production expected in India and Brazil. Specifically, India’s sugar production is projected to increase by 19% year-over-year to 35 MMT, while Brazil’s production is set to rise by 2.3% to 44.7 MMT.
Despite the bearish forecast, Brazil’s sugar output has reportedly declined by 14.6% year-over-year to 9.404 MMT as of mid-June 2025/26, impacted by unfavorable growing conditions. The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar deficit of 5.47 MMT for 2024/25, indicating a tightening market after a surplus in the previous year.
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