March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) fell by $0.37, or 2.42%, to a one-week low, while March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) decreased by $7.90, or 1.82% amid a rally in the dollar index. This downward trend follows forecasts from Brazil’s Safras & Mercado indicating a 3.91% decrease in sugar production for the 2026/27 season to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT).
India, however, reported an uptick in sugar production, with estimates for the 2025/26 season raised to 31 MMT, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year increase, which may negatively impact global prices. Concurrently, the USDA projected record global sugar production of 189.318 MMT for the 2025/26 season, against a consumption increase of 1.4%, leading to a reduced ending stock of 41.188 MMT.
The International Sugar Organization forecasts a 1.625 million metric ton surplus for the 2025-26 season, driven mainly by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. This follows a deficit of 2.916 million metric tons in the previous season.
