March NY world sugar #11 closed down 0.06 cents (-0.40%) at Thursday’s close, while March London ICE white sugar #5 decreased by 1.90 (-0.45%). The decline in sugar prices followed a significant plunge in WTI crude oil, which fell to a seven-week low, potentially increasing sugar production as mills may divert cane crushing toward sugar instead of ethanol.
Sugar production has surged recently, with the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reporting a 43% year-on-year increase in Indian sugar production from October-November to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT). In Brazil, Conab raised its 2025/26 sugar production forecast to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) is predicting a 1.625 MMT surplus for 2025-26 due to increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, marking a notable shift from the previous year’s 2.916 MMT deficit.
The USDA also indicated a bullish outlook for global sugar production in 2025/26, estimating a record 189.3 MMT, with significant production increases anticipated in both India (up 25% y/y to 35.3 MMT) and Brazil (up 2.3% y/y to 44.7 MMT).
