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On March 14, 2023, sugar prices fell, with March NY world sugar #11 down by 0.12 (-0.81%) and March London ICE white sugar #5 down by 1.20 (-0.28%). This decline follows a decrease in the Brazilian real, which hit a 7-week low against the dollar, prompting increased export sales from Brazilian sugar producers.
Indian sugar production increased significantly, with the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reporting a 43% year-over-year rise to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) for the October-November period. Additionally, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, contributing to bearish trends in global sugar prices.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. This marks a shift from the previous year’s 2.916 million MT deficit, and the ISO anticipates a 3.2% year-over-year rise in global sugar production to 181.8 million MT.
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