On March 14, 2023, sugar prices fell, with May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) down 1.83% and May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) down 1.49%, primarily due to a 2% drop in crude oil prices. This decline sparked long liquidation in sugar futures.
Despite recent highs earlier this month, where NY sugar reached a 5-month peak and London sugar a 5.5-month high, analysts predict a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26. In India, the Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association reported a 10.5% year-over-year increase in sugar output for 2025-26, totaling 29.3 MMT.
The International Sugar Organization forecasts a 1.22 MMT sugar surplus in 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, while Brazil faces lower sugar output, with a reported 36% year-over-year drop in production in January.
