On Monday, May NY world sugar #11 (SBK26) dropped by 0.18 (-1.15%) to close at $15.48, while May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) fell by 2.70 (-0.60%). The decline was primarily driven by a more than 9% drop in crude oil prices, which is likely to encourage sugar mills to boost sugar production at the expense of ethanol output.
Supply disruptions due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are impacting around 6% of global sugar trade, according to Covrig Analytics. This, combined with projections of a 3.4 million metric ton global sugar surplus for the 2026/27 crop year, has contributed to price pressures. The International Sugar Organization forecasts a 3.0% year-over-year increase in global sugar production to 181.3 million metric tons for 2025-26, largely driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan.
Recent reports from the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association indicate that India’s sugar output for the 2025-26 season could reach 29.3 million metric tons, an increase of 12% year-over-year. In addition, India has approved an additional 500,000 metric tons of sugar for export, impacting global pricing dynamics as the world’s second-largest sugar producer looks to expand its market presence.
